Guest Essay: A long-term fiscally conservative and responsible decision
By DEVIN PADAVIL
I am writing to you, as shareholders in Georgetown ISD, to explain the decision to defer the opening of the district’s new elementary and middle school in Southeast Georgetown until 2027.
When we talk about school finance, it helps to think about it the way most families think about their own household budget. If income stays the same, there are only a few choices. You can increase spending and accept a deficit. You can hold spending flat and make no improvements. Or you can reduce expenses in one area to invest in another.
School districts face similar choices. Our funding is driven almost entirely by two factors: tax revenue and student enrollment. If enrollment does not grow as expected, revenue does not grow.
In 2023, just two months before the 2024 bond election was called, demographic projections indicated Georgetown ISD would serve 15,109 students in the 2026–27 school year, with six overcrowded campuses. Our most recent projection for that same school year now shows approximately 14,100 students and only two overcrowded schools.
Historically, these projections have been very accurate. In 2020, enrollment was projected at 13,548 students for January 2023. Actual enrollment was 13,438. These demographic forecasts are generally reliable for long-term decisions.
Over the past two years, several things have changed. Regional economic growth slowed. Higher interest rates impact home buying. The average number of days a home stays on the market increased from roughly 25 to nearly 100. As a result, development in planned neighborhoods also slowed.
That matters because enrollment drives revenue.
While bond funds finance building construction, they do not cover ongoing staffing and utility costs. Opening a campus requires hiring administrators, counselors, office staff, custodians, security, and support staff. Those expenses are paid from the district’s operating budget.
When enrollment growth does not generate enough additional revenue to cover added costs, this results in a deficit. That brings us back to the same three options: accept a deficit, forgo staff pay increases, or reduce expenses elsewhere. None of those paths is sustainable or responsible.
Budget priorities
As part of this spring’s budget development for 2026, the Board of Trustees established clear priorities. Those include increasing pay for teachers and staff while maintaining a balanced budget. Meeting those goals in any year is challenging. Doing so while opening two new campuses without projected enrollment growth is not possible.
Responsible decisions
During Monday’s Board of Trustees meeting, I recommended delaying the opening of Jessie Daniel Ames Elementary School (No. 12) and Middle School No. 5. While disappointing, this decision aligns with our district's fiscally conservative values.
We are deeply grateful for the trust this community placed in Georgetown ISD through the 2024 bond election. Building in 2024 instead of 2025 saved taxpayers $40 million in rising interest and inflationary costs. In the meantime, we will address overcrowding through rezoning at Wolf Ranch only, and we will continue preparing for the new schools to open in 2027 and high school No. 4 in 2028.
Dr. Devin Padavil is superintendent of Georgetown ISD.